Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Minnesota

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Minnesota in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Minnesota in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 79.9% for Minnesota for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.707) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.092).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.6238 8.12%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.5541 -1.71%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1526 -2.36%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0769 -0.60%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0445 -2.67%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.0264 0.22%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0325 -0.76%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.2452 2.11%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0060 -0.08%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0312 0.16%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0156 -0.18%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.3293 -4.14%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.3377 -4.12%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0204 0.20%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0541 -0.42%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.1346 2.32%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0529 -0.76%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.3618 7.11%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.2091 2.65%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.1370 -2.48%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0276 0.80%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0373 -0.11%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.3161 -2.98%
Low Income 0.0081 0.6538 0.53%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0192 -0.10%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.1250 1.94%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.6827 12.90%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.1298 0.20%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.1743 -0.26%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0529 0.74%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.4147 2.57%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0445 -0.22%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0276 -0.06%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 229.0000 -4.19%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0097 2.06%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0444 3.82%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.1121 2.13%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0178 -9.51%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0630 -30.64%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1327 49.86%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2525 20.79%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.0997 -8.89%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0314 14.21%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0468 10.36%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0310 2.11%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $7,943 for Minnesota for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 42131) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34188).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.6580 -$1,869
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.5522 -$476
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1565 -$492
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0739 -$391
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0420 -$255
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.0203 $5
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0261 -$115
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.2348 -$546
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0058 -$37
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0304 -$82
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0130 $91
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.3290 $119
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.3464 $286
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0232 -$31
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0565 $319
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.1261 $511
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0478 $408
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.3826 $369
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.2188 $793
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.1261 -$125
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0275 -$37
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0261 -$115
Single Parent 145.7630 0.3435 $50
Low Income -332.4067 0.6594 -$219
Homeless -446.4262 0.0203 -$9
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.1203 $242
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0000 $0
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.7333 $592
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 4662.0550 $1,703
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.1116 $225
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.1768 $121
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0522 -$134
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.4217 $385
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0348 $4
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0217 -$129
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0000 $0
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.0000 $0
Median Days in Program 3.2489 226.0000 $734
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0097 $233
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0444 $1,434
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.1121 $4,399
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0178 -$860
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0630 $256
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1327 $12,840
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2525 $14,180
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.0997 $5,747
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0314 $338
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0468 $1,855
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0310 -$189

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 57.2% for Minnesota for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 7.732) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-7.159).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.6258 -22.62%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.6041 31.52%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.0843 -0.59%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0281 -2.80%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0268 7.84%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.0064 -0.92%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0345 7.35%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.2963 -16.80%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0421 3.59%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0332 6.56%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.3857 -4.70%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.3870 -7.13%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0089 0.07%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0332 -2.84%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0983 -1.97%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0294 5.40%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.4955 18.07%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.3857 -11.74%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0996 -2.60%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0140 0.35%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0664 5.85%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.3602 7.69%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.0971 7.58%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.2133 -0.03%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.1941 1.27%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0204 0.02%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.4253 -5.51%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0268 1.32%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 254.5000 9.03%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 174.0000 -4.24%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.0958 -0.08%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0097 9.71%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0444 39.60%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.1121 135.92%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0178 -78.19%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0630 199.71%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1327 100.53%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2525 250.68%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.0997 25.72%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0314 103.19%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0468 -0.67%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0310 -41.96%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 86.9% for Minnesota for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.848) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.717).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.4581 2.73%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.3298 0.62%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.3347 -0.57%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1998 2.12%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.1176 -2.24%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.0066 0.08%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0362 -1.05%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.0683 -0.24%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0033 0.29%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0140 -0.14%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0115 -0.22%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.2179 -0.57%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.2590 -5.03%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0164 -0.30%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.0592 -0.54%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.2771 -4.01%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.1620 -1.96%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0641 0.68%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0387 -0.10%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0600 -0.32%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0559 0.03%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0164 -0.41%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.0970 0.43%
Low Income -0.0518 0.1365 -0.71%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0049 0.02%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0436 1.65%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0041 -0.09%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.9556 10.81%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.0304 0.17%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.7475 1.56%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0329 0.24%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.3199 1.59%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0066 -0.08%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0115 0.94%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 225.0000 0.18%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0097 -1.96%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0444 -2.07%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.1121 -19.13%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0178 -17.66%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0630 -39.50%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1327 -47.81%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2525 -50.36%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.0997 -28.42%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0314 9.55%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0468 5.75%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0310 1.27%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $12,783 for Minnesota for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 38478) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-25695).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.4617 -$878
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.3387 $378
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.3406 -$43
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1968 -$418
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.1050 -$262
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.0057 -$5
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0350 -$164
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.0615 -$94
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0028 -$9
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0142 -$50
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0123 -$46
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.2167 -$303
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.2611 -$497
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0161 $1
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.0624 $95
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.2763 $323
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.1599 $345
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.0738 $126
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0360 $136
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0520 $15
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0520 $75
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0142 -$42
Single Parent -784.4348 0.0984 -$77
Low Income -538.7097 0.1277 -$69
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0047 $37
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0397 $72
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0038 $1
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.9584 $20
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 13592.7600 $1,246
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.0293 $40
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.7379 $51
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0322 -$80
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.3141 $55
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0057 $3
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0104 -$22
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0000 $0
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.0000 $0
Median Days in Program 2.2222 212.0000 $471
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0097 -$264
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0444 $1,626
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.1121 $5,290
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0178 -$4,643
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0630 $5,407
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1327 $12,610
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2525 $12,920
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.0997 $4,383
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0314 -$143
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0468 $1,042
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0310 -$179

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 53.5% for Minnesota for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.365) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.83).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.5024 -7.58%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.4424 -2.90%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.3247 7.84%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.1353 6.20%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0776 7.10%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.0012 -0.08%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0365 -1.95%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.0918 -3.02%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0153 4.05%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0200 0.10%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.1953 -3.75%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.2976 -7.09%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0118 -0.31%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.0588 1.54%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.2788 -3.13%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.1271 -5.43%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0024 -0.01%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0529 -1.40%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0600 -8.69%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0635 -5.87%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0129 0.58%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.1141 4.21%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0388 1.82%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.2553 0.73%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.0918 3.56%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0412 1.47%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.3576 -2.20%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0106 -0.46%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 283.0000 -9.09%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 167.0000 -4.57%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.1941 3.14%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0097 -7.83%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0444 19.73%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.1121 110.49%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0178 -104.73%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0630 76.79%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1327 213.06%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2525 180.87%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.0997 15.07%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0314 205.05%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0468 -13.32%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0310 -33.51%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 77.9% for Minnesota for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.159) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.938).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5463 3.25%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0611 0.75%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.1979 -2.84%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3368 -6.92%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.2095 0.22%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.0537 -0.34%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0516 1.03%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.3547 -1.47%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0042 -0.22%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0926 -3.09%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0568 0.86%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.4421 3.06%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0484 -1.51%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0032 0.36%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0032 0.16%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.2400 6.59%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.3147 1.12%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.3674 -1.72%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0537 -0.75%
Low Income 0.0375 0.9505 3.56%
Homeless -0.2008 0.1632 -3.28%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.1632 1.04%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0368 -0.04%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.2347 -1.68%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.6853 2.39%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0000 0.00%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0116 -0.05%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.3853 1.70%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0179 -0.27%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0474 0.35%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0000 0.00%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0558 0.21%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.0021 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 365.0000 -1.46%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0097 -6.58%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0444 -8.34%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.1121 -15.25%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0178 -13.02%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0630 -13.45%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1327 -33.92%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2525 0.62%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.0997 -3.93%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0314 -33.89%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0468 15.43%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0310 -4.60%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,930 for Minnesota for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 15122) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-11191).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5784 -$1,086.03
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0532 -$4.91
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.1814 -$237.52
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3356 -$357.92
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.2169 $140.89
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.0573 $109.64
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0546 $35.45
Race: Black -886.3703 0.3547 -$314.40
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0027 -$9.25
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0832 -$15.35
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0505 $47.10
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.4720 $653.27
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0587 -$48.58
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0027 $0.47
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0041 $27.31
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.2769 $169.98
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.2960 $161.70
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.3438 -$170.24
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0559 $137.39
Low Income -305.7985 0.9441 -$288.69
Homeless 983.9044 0.1514 $149.00
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.1514 -$194.54
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0396 $39.95
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.2360 $201.68
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.6862 -$194.53
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0000 $0.00
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0123 -$5.68
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.3929 $63.33
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0150 -$2.76
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0409 -$67.89
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0000 $0.00
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0668 $6.96
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.0014 -$0.01
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.0000 $0.00
Median Days in Program 0.5942 366.0000 $217.48
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0097 -$30.75
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0444 $487.64
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.1121 $2,417.09
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0178 -$989.47
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0630 $2,820.66
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1327 $1,886.93
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2525 $5,143.65
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.0997 $706.41
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0314 $1,790.33
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0468 $2,038.16
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0310 -$312.37

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 53.4% for Minnesota for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.081) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.547).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5074 -14.00%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0994 -8.06%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.3165 -28.56%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.3339 -23.37%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1430 -23.46%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.0148 -0.03%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0567 -0.09%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.2807 0.12%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0915 -1.44%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0619 12.21%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.2441 -6.57%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0497 5.22%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0035 -0.22%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0017 0.33%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.5562 1.22%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.6504 12.85%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0052 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.3714 -2.65%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0375 1.03%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0759 4.20%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.1177 -10.43%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 357.0000 -11.65%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0776 -2.67%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0097 7.40%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0444 42.46%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.1121 65.37%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0178 -76.38%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0630 -89.67%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1327 192.11%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2525 178.34%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.0997 62.78%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0314 159.61%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0468 -34.34%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0310 -3.61%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 69.6% for Minnesota for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.186) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.49).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4360 3.49%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4398 4.77%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.2314 -1.99%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.1275 -0.09%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1275 -0.80%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.0464 1.08%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0308 -0.72%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.1469 -2.36%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0031 0.30%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0383 -1.17%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0269 0.67%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.2607 -0.45%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.2008 0.78%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0940 -0.40%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0962 3.36%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.2001 -13.54%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0702 -3.68%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.1811 1.57%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0748 -0.67%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0624 -2.22%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0687 1.49%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0084 -0.02%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0016 0.03%
Low Income 0.0926 0.0059 0.05%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0135 -0.09%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0002 0.00%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0142 -0.33%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.8186 25.98%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0214 -0.33%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.7023 -2.70%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.2662 -2.39%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0095 -0.11%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0043 0.47%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0047 -0.27%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 31.0000 -0.85%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0097 1.63%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0444 6.84%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.1121 11.35%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0178 -0.82%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0630 18.66%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1327 12.51%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2525 32.40%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.0997 5.90%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0314 12.25%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0468 7.95%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0310 1.06%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $7,649 for Minnesota for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 42350) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34700).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4398 -$1,220
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4610 $704
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2400 $54
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.1240 $214
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0970 $387
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.0486 $73
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0319 -$41
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.1552 -$454
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0029 -$7
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0339 -$189
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0272 $291
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.2614 -$461
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.2022 -$440
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0933 -$203
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.1001 $210
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.2034 $15
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0686 -$344
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.2055 $94
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0794 -$92
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0510 -$261
Veteran -913.8967 0.0646 -$59
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0070 $11
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0014 $1
Low Income 634.4633 0.0033 $2
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0112 -$39
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0001 $0
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0117 -$127
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8992 -$197
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 9095.4700 $2,375
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0168 $13
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.7418 $337
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.2252 $56
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0092 -$11
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0026 $28
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0043 $7
Median Days in Program 0.8717 33.0000 $29
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0097 $359
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0444 $1,897
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.1121 $5,348
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0178 $202
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0630 $3,942
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1327 $9,009
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2525 $13,001
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.0997 $4,287
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0314 $1,307
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0468 $2,402
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0310 -$158

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x